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Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Method

General Method

IPH uses a systematic and consistent method to produce prevalence data for all conditions.

This page provides a general description of our approach. Click on the links below for more detail about how the general approach was implemented for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD).

Estimating and forecasting population prevalence at national and sub-national levels involves four steps. The steps are implemented separately in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland using data specific to the particular country.

 

Step I: Estimating risk in the population

A reference study is used to build the best predictive model of risk in the national population. The best predictive model includes a number of explanatory variables for the condition. The model: 

  • Divides the population into risk groups defined by the categories of the explanatory variables
  • Provides an estimate of the risk (at national level) of having the condition in each of the risk groups.

Click here for more detail about how this step was implemented for CHD.

 

Step II: Modify the initial model and identify the final model

The initial model is the best predictive model of risk based on the reference study. However, it may not be the best model based on other criteria. The initial model is assessed for bias and the feasibility of estimating/projecting the number of people in the population in each of its risk groups. In Step II a final model – a possibly simplified form of the initial model – is identified that:

  • Is as close as possible to the initial model
  • Provides sub-national estimates of population prevalence that are as unbiased and precise as possible
  • Allows the population size of the risk groups in each local area to be estimated as satisfactorily as possible

Click here for more detail about how this step was implemented for CHD.

 

Step III: Estimate and forecast the number of people in each risk group in the population

Population-based data (for age and sex) and data from the reference studies (for the other explanatory variables in the final model) are used to estimate and forecast the number of people in each risk group in the population.

Click here for more detail about how this was step implemented for CHD.

 

Step IV: Estimate and forecast national and sub-national population prevalence

The final model’s national group risk estimates (Step II) are multiplied by the corresponding group population count estimates and forecasts (Step III) to estimate and forecast the number of people with the condition.

Click here for more detail about how this step was implemented for CHD.

 

Click here to view the CHD method in one complete document.

View IPH's CHD Briefing

Use the Health Well's online data tools to explore or download the data (last updated June 2012)

View the CHD theme on the Health Well's Community Profiles.

 

 

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